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The failing Bond Market

When a government needs to borrow money, it issues bonds - that is, it promises to repay a loan with interest. Suppose it offers a $1,000 bond at a 5% annual interest rate over five years. This means the bondholder receives $1,250 total ($1,000 principal + $250 interest). Initially, an investor (Bond Holder A) accepts the deal. Later, however, the investor grows concerned that the government may default and decides to sell the bond at a loss - say, for $800 - to Bond Holder B.

Bond Holder B now holds a bond that will return $1,250 for an $800 investment, yielding 6.25%. This higher yield does not come from a change in the bond’s terms but from the lower purchase price, which reflects the market’s growing skepticism about the government's ability to repay its debt. If the government needs to borrow more money, it must now offer yields comparable to the new market rate - at least 6.25% - to attract investors.

This increase in required yield makes borrowing more expensive and further signals to the market that the government's finances may be unstable. As concern spreads, more investors sell off bonds, prices fall further, and yields rise again. The result is a feedback loop: falling bond prices drive up borrowing costs, worsening perceptions of risk and causing even more sell-offs.

Thus, a loss of confidence can spark a self-reinforcing cycle where rising yields and falling bond prices feed fears of default and fiscal instability.

A New Investment Paradigm

For over a century, the dominant motivation for investing has been simple: grow capital and protect it against inflation. From individual savers to trillion-dollar institutions, the goal was to generate a return that at least exceeded the pace at which fiat currencies lost their value. Asset managers built empires on this promise, offering portfolios and strategies to outpace inflation. But what happens when the rules change—when the need to constantly grow wealth to preserve it begins to fade?

Enter Bitcoin. With its fixed supply, decentralized nature, and resistance to monetary manipulation, Bitcoin represents a new kind of store of value—one that could fundamentally shift why and how we invest.

The Inflation Imperative: Why We Invest Today

Traditional investment has been anchored in the reality of inflation. As central banks print money and purchasing power erodes, savers are incentivized to place their capital in assets that grow in value: stocks, bonds, real estate, and increasingly, alternatives. The entire apparatus of modern investing—funds, benchmarks, passive ETFs, active management—is a response to this inflationary pressure.

Asset managers like BlackRock and Vanguard thrive because they provide the infrastructure and insight necessary to preserve and grow wealth in this inflationary environment. Their job is not just to earn returns—it’s to avoid loss via erosion.

Bitcoin as a Store of Value

Bitcoin breaks this model. With a hard cap of 21 million coins and no central authority to inflate its supply, Bitcoin offers a value proposition that fiat currencies and even gold cannot: predictability and scarcity. Its decentralized, borderless nature makes it difficult to confiscate or manipulate, and its growing adoption suggests it may increasingly function as a global monetary base.

For investors, this changes the game. If one can hold Bitcoin and preserve wealth without the need for complex portfolios or exposure to volatile markets, then the rationale behind traditional investment begins to weaken. The default action becomes to hold, not to seek returns.

Investing Beyond Money: The Rise of Purpose-Driven Capital

In a world where holding Bitcoin is enough to preserve wealth, the question shifts from "How do I protect my money?" to "What is worth investing in?"

This opens the door to purpose-driven capital. Rather than chasing ROI to beat inflation, investors may begin to fund projects and companies that reflect their values, passions, or long-term vision for society. This includes:

  • Renewable energy and climate tech
  • Social equity initiatives
  • Open-source technologies
  • Community infrastructure
  • Space, biotech, and frontier science

The motivation is not just profit—it’s impact. The metrics become more qualitative: legacy, meaning, contribution.

The Crisis and Opportunity for Asset Managers

This shift poses an existential threat to traditional asset managers. If wealth preservation can be achieved by simply holding Bitcoin, the value of complex, fee-laden portfolios diminishes. Large firms like BlackRock must pivot or risk irrelevance.

But there is an opportunity. These institutions can reposition themselves as brokers of purpose:

  • Curating portfolios of values-aligned, impactful investments
  • Offering tools to measure non-financial returns (e.g., carbon offsets, social impact)
  • Advising clients on how to align capital with conscience

In this new role, the asset manager is not just a financial engineer—they are a guide in a moral, social, and philosophical investment journey.

A New Financial Archetype: The Investment Philosopher

The next generation of financial advisors may look less like Wall Street traders and more like investment philosophers. They will help clients navigate questions such as:

  • What causes do I care about?
  • What kind of world do I want my capital to build?
  • How can I measure satisfaction beyond returns?

This is already emerging in impact investing, ESG mandates, and regenerative finance. Bitcoin simply accelerates the transition by removing the "survival pressure" of beating inflation.

Risks and Counterpoints

Of course, Bitcoin is not without its challenges. Volatility remains high, regulatory uncertainty persists, and adoption is uneven. For now, traditional investments still offer diversification and yield opportunities. Moreover, many investors will still chase returns out of habit or ambition.

Governments may also impose tax policies or incentives that push capital back into conventional markets. And some may argue that a truly post-inflation world is still decades away.

Still, the direction of travel is clear: Bitcoin has planted the seed of a new investment paradigm.

The Quiet Revolution

Bitcoin may not loudly overthrow the financial system, but it quietly rewires the motivations behind it. In a world where money no longer leaks value over time, investing becomes a matter of meaning, not necessity.

For investors, the question becomes not just "What will this return?" but "What will this create?"

And for the financial institutions of tomorrow, survival will depend not on beating benchmarks - but on helping clients build a life - and a world  - worth investing in.

 

Bumping Spiral

Just to be clear, the spiral “bumping into itself” is just the way it's drawn. It looks bad but the increase of BTC  vs. $$$ over the last four years is just over 14% per annum. Even in our most frustrating times Bitcoin  gives a return you financial advisor would be pleased to report.

ATH calculations

A trivial mathematical point. The price for determining whether an ATH was reached during the day is the closing price of the day (and that's a GMT day). Variations in the price during the day don't count.

So it's no good looking at the price when it's 0 days since an ATH and complaining you saw it higher the day before.

Live Pricing

The final price point of the spiral (today's price) is now updated throughout the day.

Special thanks to Kraken for the data via their API.

A Minor Change

That rainbow bar at the bottom right of the image now shows three ATH blobs - this is to avoid confusion with the single blob being interpreted as progress to the next halvening.

Incomplete Data (an update)

The data feed from CoinDesk continues to be unreliable and so we have switched to Kraken and their API for prices from 1st May 2022 onwards.

Thanks Kraken!

Incomplete Data (not)

CoinDesk had a break in their data feed. When they restored the data (thank you to them) there was a bit of a gap in the graph. That's now fixed with the manual insertion of the missing prices.

Some quick thanks...

Thank you to Evolution Computing for hosting the site.

Falls from ATHs - an update

Bitcoin has been having a hard time recently. Here's an updated chart showing Bitcoin's falls from its ATHs (All Time Highs).

Updated: 20-May-2022

Happy New Year!

As a new year starts we rotate the plot 90 degrees anticlockwise so our plot goes up and to the right - we like graphs that do that. 

Falls from ATHs

I've had it in my mind to produce a chart showing Bitcoin's falls from its ATHs (All Time Highs). Here's the result...

Lightning Donations

Spreading the love is nice but it would be wonderful to think that somebody, somewhere thought the charts worth a few Satoshis...

Even 1,000 Lightning Sats would make my day!

ps. the QR code is LNURL1DP68GURN8GHJ7MR9VAJKUEPWD3HXY6T5WVHXXMMD9AKXUATJD3CZ7CTSDYHHVVF0D3H82UNV9UMNVD35X5HJH6AY

Custom Charts Available

Money, fame and glory would be nice but after much deliberation I've decided I just want to share the love.

The original idea was to generate a polar chart for every day and make them available as NFTs. I hoped that some days would be more notable than others and might attract a nice price - such as the day Bitcoin hits $100,000 as it surely will.

The only problem was the navigation of the NFT arena: scripts to make a new image on a daily basis, calls to API's, entering a new crypto arena (Etheruem) and getting lambasted by the purist Bitcoin warriors for using OpenSea that builds on Ethereum. 

Quite simply, go to Custom Charts and generate your own chart.

Date - any date from 17th July 2010 to present

Text - anything you like but not too long (leave blank for the "1 BTC = xxx' message)

The resultant image will be 4000 pixels wide which is certainly good enough to print as 12" but you could probably get away with 24"

 

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